[SCOT goes POP!] Even YouGov now say the Union Jack could soon be LOWERED as sensational MRP poll shows SNP on course for an overall majority

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Even YouGov now say the Union Jack could soon be LOWERED as sensational MRP poll shows SNP on course for an overall majority

MRP Seats projection (YouGov / Sky News / The Times, 23rd March-8th April 2026):

SNP 67

Reform UK 20

Labour 15

Greens 11

Liberal Democrats 9

Conservatives 7

Now, I've estimated the chances of the SNP winning a single-party overall majority as around 1 in 200, and I maintain that it's a long-shot because the voting system is specfically designed to produce hung parliaments.  As we saw in 2021 it does that job very effectively.  The SNP had a record-breaking 48% of the constituency vote but still fell one seat short of a majority.  However, I know there are many disciples of the YouGov MRP method out there, and I don't think it's realistic to pay no heed to YouGov of all firms saying, as they are tonight, that in 89% of simulations the SNP win a majority.  Even the lower bound of the estimate has the SNP on 63 seats, which would be only two short of a majority.

Crucially this is not happening simply because of a freakish split in the unionist vote - the SNP's own constituency vote share has recovered to a very healthy 41%, which if true is a great tribute to the leadership of John Swinney.  

Another thing I've said repeatedly is that there is no route to an overall majority that involves list seats, and technically this poll even casts doubt on that, because the SNP are projected to take a list seat - but it would be just the one.  The majority would essentially be won with 66 constituency seats, meaning the SNP would miss out on just seven constituencies: 

Shetland Islands

Orkney Islands

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross

Fife North East

Edinburgh North Western

Edinburgh Central

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire

Even among those seven, there are some real possibilities for the SNP if the detailed YouGov numbers are to be believed.  They're just three points behind the Tories in Ettrick, Roxburh & Berwickshire, where a big Reform vote could split Tory support just enough to give the SNP an opening.  Edinburgh Central is virtually a three-way dead heat, with the SNP and Greens both projected to be on 25%, and Labour just behind on 23%.  So in a best-case scenario the SNP may well still take it, and in a worst-case scenario this could be a repeat of 2016 when the Greens handed the seat on a silver plate to a unionist party by putting up a candidate - although in this case the beneficiary would be Labour rather than the Tories.  

In spite of the perception that Caithness, Sutherland & Ross may be a lost cause, the SNP are projected to be only four points behind the Lib Dems there.  So the only four seats where the SNP would be out of the running completely are the true Lib Dem fortresses of Fife North East, Edinburgh North Western, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands.

On the other hand, among the 66 constituencies the SNP are projected to win, there are of course some close ones, and none more so than the increasingly weird seat of Dumbarton, which the SNP should have gained from Labour in both of the last two Holyrood elections, but didn't because Tory supporters in Helensburgh switched en masse to Labour.  The projection has the SNP winning by a mere two points this time, so to put it mildly that one can't be taken for granted.

More details and analysis to follow shortly...

Source: Even YouGov now say the Union Jack could soon be LOWERED as sensational MRP poll shows SNP on course for an overall majority