[SCOT goes POP!] Ironically, the success of the unusual coalition model from the Greens' point of view probably means it will never be repeated

[ALBA-Bot]

Ironically, the success of the unusual coalition model from the Greens' point of view probably means it will never be repeated

It now looks like Fianna Fáil will top the first preference vote in the Irish general election, despite the exit poll last night putting them third.  Some people are claiming that means the exit poll was a "dud", but that's pushing it a bit - the top three parties were all within 1.6 percentage points of each other in the exit poll, so due to the in-built margin of error, the poll could still have been "right" no matter which of the three came out on top.

On one point the exit poll certainly wasn't misleading - the Green party, which was the junior partner in the outgoing coalition government, is taking a hammering.  This seems to be a recurring pattern for the Irish Greens every time they join a government, and is also a common phenomenon for junior coalition partners across Europe.  What tends to happen is that people who are satisfied with a government gravitate towards voting for the senior coalition partners at the subsequent election (those parties are "the government" in voters' eyes), while those unhappy with the government will be angry with the junior coalition partners for compromising on their principles.

Strangely, though, the Scottish Greens seemed to be immune to that general rule - they took part in a government for almost three years, did some very controversial things, and yet their popularity didn't dip at all.  If anything, it was the SNP who took a hammering for the concessions they made to the Greens, rather than vice versa.  That can be explained by the unusual model of coalition that was adopted, with the Greens taking ministerial roles but not in the Cabinet, and with a number of policy areas excluded from the deal.  That allowed the Greens to pose as either a government party or an opposition party depending on what suited them at any given moment.  In her recent controversial article, Kezia Dugdale said "OK, it technically wasn't a coalition", but actually the opposite is true - it technically was a coalition, but the Greens somehow managed to hypnotise everyone into pretending that it wasn't.

Ironically, the sheer effectiveness of the deal from a Green point of view probably means that the model used will never be repeated - any potential senior coalition partner will be wary and will insist that the junior partner is either all in or all out.

Source: Ironically, the success of the unusual coalition model from the Greens' point of view probably means it will never be repeated