[SCOT goes POP!] A response to some 'feedback'

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A response to some 'feedback'

Even by normal standards there has been a truly industrial scale of trolling on the last three threads, and I've had a bit of it on Twitter as well.  Lesson: if you really want to upset the unionist contingent, all you have to do is point out to them that three Labour by-election wins are not actually as impressive as they would like to believe.  Their synthetic indignation at the idea that anything other than the winner of each by-election matters reminds me of someone watching the first few points of a match between Novak Djokovic and some minnow, and theatrically screaming "OH MY GOD, DJOKOVIC IS GETTING ABSOLUTELY SLAUGHTERED" when the minnow has a routine hold in his opening service game.

As I'm in a generous mood, I'll explain in a bit more detail why the results (with one exception) were not that great for Labour.

Whitburn and Blackburn: The SNP won the popular vote in this ward by just one percentage point in 2022, even though they were twelve points ahead of Labour nationally.  So on a uniform swing, they would have needed to be eleven points ahead of Labour nationally to win the ward on Thursday.  Although several polls have shown the SNP recovering since the general election and moving back into the lead, there has not yet been a lead of eleven points or more.  On no planet were the SNP favourites to win this by-election - although, as it happens, they very nearly did.

Doon Valley: Labour were more than two points ahead of the SNP in this ward in 2022, even though the SNP were twelve points ahead of Labour nationally.  By any standards, that makes it an unusually Labour-friendly ward.  To have won it on Thursday on a uniform swing, the SNP would have needed to be ahead of Labour by about fourteen-and-a-half points nationally.  No, it is not a major problem for the SNP that they are not fourteen-and-a-half points ahead nationally at this stage.

Colinton/Fairmilehead: The SNP weren't even starting from second place in this ward - in 2022 they were in third place with just 17% of the vote, in spite of being miles ahead nationally.  The idea that there is any shame in failing to win here on Thursday is completely ludicrous.  There was in fact a technical swing from Labour to the SNP, although admittedly in practice that was mainly caused by movement from Labour to the Lib Dems.

Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse: As I stated several times yesterday, this was the one and only result that was genuinely good for Labour and disappointing for the SNP.  In 2022, the SNP's lead in the ward was a little above ten points, very similar to the national picture, meaning on a uniform swing they would only have needed a tiny national lead to win on Thursday.  So yes, this particular one was a poor outcome, but it's one out of four, guys, one out of four.

Source: A response to some 'feedback'