[SCOT goes POP!] Find Out Now! Find Out How? Find Out WOW!!! Sensational MRP projection suggests SNP would win a 2019-style landslide victory if another general election was held now

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Find Out Now! Find Out How? Find Out WOW!!!  Sensational MRP projection suggests SNP would win a 2019-style landslide victory if another general election was held now

There was a brief moment of hope for Robert Jenrick in the Tory leadership contest a couple of days ago when a Find Out Now MRP projection suggested he would win more seats in a general election than Kemi Badenoch would (although the results for both of them were fairly dire).  That hope has now been snuffed out by last night's head-to-head GB News debate, which like all normal people I didn't watch, but which seems to have been a clear win for Kemi Badenoch.  Hilariously, ConservativeHome's verdict on the debate was "that's two hours of our lives we won't get back".

Nevertheless, the Find Out Now results are still of interest for other reasons, because the hypothetical questions about whether Jenrick or Badenoch is Tory leader shouldn't really affect the SNP v Labour battle in Scotland, and in both scenarios the SNP are projected to score a landslide victory (remember 29 seats is the target for a majority in Scotland).

Seats projection if Badenoch is Conservative leader:

Labour 332

Conservatives 151

Liberal Democrats 63

SNP 48

Reform UK 25

Plaid Cymru 4

Greens 4

Seats projection if Jenrick is Conservative leader:

Labour 311

Conservatives 178

Liberal Democrats 58

SNP 48

Reform UK 24

Plaid Cymru 4

Greens 4

Although polls asking hypothetical questions are always problematical, I'd suggest it's reasonable to assume that a standard MRP poll would show the SNP at roughly the same level, which would put them right back to where they were at the time of their 2019 landslide.  Labour would appear to have completely blown it in Scotland in the space of just three or four months.  

On the face of it this looks like a case of Labour proving resilient in England but not in Scotland, but that's actually not true - their share of the GB-wide vote in this poll is just 29% (if Badenoch is Tory leader) or 28% (if it's Jenrick).  It's only the split in the right-wing vote that is keeping them afloat in England, but I doubt if they'll be able to rely on that indefinitely.

The GB-wide sample size was 6000, which means the Scottish sample won't have been that far short of what is normal for a full-scale Scottish poll.

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Source: Find Out Now! Find Out How? Find Out WOW!!!  Sensational MRP projection suggests SNP would win a 2019-style landslide victory if another general election was held now