[SCOT goes POP!] The bombshell hits: the SNP *take the lead* in sensational eve-of-election Savanta poll

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The bombshell hits: the SNP *take the lead* in sensational eve-of-election Savanta poll

I've been wondering for weeks if there might be one poll, just one poll over the course of the campaign that would put the SNP in the outright lead.  It was beginning to look very unlikely, but it's happened on the very last day.  Obviously we have to be cautious about this, because we've already had poor polling data for the SNP from Survation earlier this evening, and who knows, perhaps there'll be one or two disappointing polls from other firms over the course of the next 24 hours.  But I'd much rather go into election day with uncertainty in the air rather than sure knowledge that it's going to be a bad result, and it looks like uncertainty is exactly what we're going to have.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Savanta):

SNP 34% (-)

Labour 31% (-3)

Conservatives 15% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)

Reform UK 6 % (-)

Greens 3% (+1)

The one disappointment here is that the Tory vote does seem to be solidifying just slightly as polling day approaches - there's been evidence of that in the GB-wide polls too.  That doesn't matter so much if the SNP really are ahead of Labour, but if other firms are correct and if Labour have a small-to-middling lead, the SNP are going to be fairly reliant for seats on the SNP-Tory battleground areas, mainly in the north-east and the south.  In the worst case scenario they might be totally reliant on those areas, as they often used to be prior to the 2015 breakthrough.

More details and analysis to follow...

Source: The bombshell hits: the SNP *take the lead* in sensational eve-of-election Savanta poll