[SCOT goes POP!] Survation poll shows that SNP vote has increased slightly since Nicola Sturgeon resigned - and that Kate Forbes is frontrunner to be the next First Minister, if she wants the job

[ALBA-Bot]

Survation poll shows that SNP vote has increased slightly since Nicola Sturgeon resigned - and that Kate Forbes is frontrunner to be the next First Minister, if she wants the job

Survation have tonight followed in the footsteps of Savanta by publishing a Scottish voting intention poll with fieldwork conducted after Nicola Sturgeon resigned - although there don't appear to be any independence numbers.  That's such a strange omission that I wonder if the independence question was asked, but the results have been reserved for a newspaper client.  However, the good news is that Survation, just like Savanta, have found that the SNP's support has not been harmed by Ms Sturgeon's departure.  In fact there's a slight increase in the SNP vote, albeit not a statistically significant one.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Survation, 15th-17th February 2023):

SNP 43% (+1)

Labour 30% (+1)

Conservatives 17% (-)

Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 43% (-)

Labour 29% (-)

Conservatives 17% (-)

Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 35% (+2)

Labour 27% (+2)

Conservatives 18% (+1)

Greens 8% (-4)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

For what it's worth, my guess is that Labour will not make much progress on closing the gap - which is still extremely sizeable - over the next few weeks.  The SNP will be lavished with media attention as the various candidates jockey for position, and then whoever wins the leadership will probably enjoy a honeymoon spell in the polls.

So far, the unanimous verdict of all three polling firms that have asked is that Kate Forbes is the public's preferred choice to succeed Nicola Sturgeon, with Angus Robertson consistently the second favourite. Here are the net popularity ratings found by Survation...

Kate Forbes: +5

Angus Robertson: -3

John Swinney: -12

Humza Yousaf: -18

Even leaving aside the task of winning independence, I think I would fear a bit for the SNP's chances in future elections if Kate Forbes doesn't win.  It's not great for an incoming leader to start with a negative rating, particularly given that Anas Sarwar's personal ratings are (inexplicably) not too bad at the moment.

It's hard to know how seriously to take the Telegraph on Scottish politics, but they're making a bold claim that sounds plausible enough - that Kate Forbes is willing to jettison the Greens from government, and that the Greens probably couldn't live with her policy programme anyway.  That would change the dynamic within the independence movement pretty radically, and of course would also mean the government might occasionally struggle to win key votes in the Scottish Parliament.  I suspect Alba might feel a bit happier about no longer being the only pro-indy party of significant size to be 'outside the tent', as it were.

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Source: Survation poll shows that SNP vote has increased slightly since Nicola Sturgeon resigned - and that Kate Forbes is frontrunner to be the next First Minister, if she wants the job