[SCOT goes POP!] Sensation as traditionally No-friendly pollster YouGov shows dramatic increase in support for independence

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Sensation as traditionally No-friendly pollster YouGov shows dramatic increase in support for independence

Thanks to Marcia for pointing me in the direction of fresh independence numbers from YouGov, although the fieldwork took place a few weeks ago.  It seems to be from their most recent Scottish poll that we've already seen results from, so either the independence numbers must have been withheld at the time of publication, or they passed under the radar somehow.  I'm not sure exactly when they finally emerged into the light.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov, 30th September - 4th October 2022)

Yes 49% (+4)

No 51% (-4)

49% is higher for Yes than in any of the last five YouGov polls, which have all had the pro-independence vote in a range between 45% and 47%.  The last time Yes were as high as this with YouGov was way back in March 2021.

Of course we still have no information yet on the impact of Liz Truss' resignation on indy support, but these numbers make it 'increasingly' hard (to use a weasel word beloved of unionists) to credibly claim that Yes were going backwards prior to the Prime Minister completing her remake of The Damned United.  There were plenty of frantic attempts on social media to make that claim, but in fact YouGov are pointing to a substantial Yes increase, while Panelbase and ComRes have suggested a steady position or perhaps even a slight tick upwards for Yes.  Deltapoll have nothing to say about the trend because they have no previous history of polling on independence.

And certainly any notion from the "silent majority" brigade that the death of the Queen was the end of the road for the independence cause now looks like wishful thinking on stilts.

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Source: Sensation as traditionally No-friendly pollster YouGov shows dramatic increase in support for independence