[SCOT goes POP!] FOURTH YouGov poll in a row shows a Reform lead - but SNP have massive 22-point lead in the Scottish subsample

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FOURTH YouGov poll in a row shows a Reform lead - but SNP have massive 22-point lead in the Scottish subsample

Reform have the lead in a fourth successive YouGov poll, but they've achieved that despite their own vote share dropping back two points (which may or may not be margin of error noise).  That's been possible because Labour have also slipped back to their joint lowest level of support in a YouGov poll since the general election.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 23rd-24th February 2025):

Reform UK 25% (-2)
Labour 24% (-1)
Conservatives 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Greens 8% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 39%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 15%, Reform UK 14%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Greens 4%

I hate to disappoint our resident Reform-supporting troll, but in one key sense Reform are not AfD - they are not popular with the young.  The poll shows just 9% of 18-24 year olds would vote Reform, compared to 30% of over-50s.  

And in spite of the hype about Reform's breakthrough in Scotland, support for the party north of the border remains only half of what is being seen in both England and Wales.  One very simple explanation is the continuing massive correlation between support for Reform and support for Brexit.  Across Britain, 48% of Leave voters from 2016 are now in the Reform column, compared to just 6% of Remain voters - and of course in Scotland there are simply far fewer Leave voters than there are elsewhere in the UK.

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Source: FOURTH YouGov poll in a row shows a Reform lead - but SNP have massive 22-point lead in the Scottish subsample