[SCOT goes POP!] Strange happenings on Twechar Beach as Labour flatline but still make a by-election gain

[ALBA-Bot]

Strange happenings on Twechar Beach as Labour flatline but still make a by-election gain

So let me once again take you by the hand and try to navigate you through the wacky world of STV by-elections.  The Liberal Democrats were technically defending the seat in Kirkintilloch and Twechar, even though they only finished third in the ward last time around behind the SNP in first place and Labour in second.  Labour have won the seat tonight, so whichever way you cut it, this is a genuine gain for them.

Kirkintilloch East and North & Twechar by-election result on first preferences (13th February 2025):

Labour 30.2% (+1.0)

SNP 22.9% (-16.0)

Liberal Democrats 21.3% (+2.6)

Reform UK 15.0% (n/a)

Conservatives 4.1% (-7.9)

Greens 4.0% (n/a)

Alba 2.0% (n/a)

Sovereignty 0.6% (n/a)

It may seem strange that Labour have made another by-election gain at a time when they're dropping like a stone in national opinion polls and the SNP are doing pretty well, but you have to remember the baseline for the percentage changes is the 2022 local election results, when Nicola Sturgeon was still in her pomp and Labour were still well behind.  As you can see, Labour have barely progressed from that baseline, with a mere one percentage point improvement, so their performance is actually in line with the current polls.  It's the SNP that have underperformed poorly, and I can only assume that comes down to local factors or a below-par campaign.  The swing is consistent with a Scotland-wide Labour lead over the SNP of almost five percentage points, so I think we can safely assume that's misleading.

It's another strong showing for Reform UK, although not quite matching the remarkable 23% they got in Bannockburn a few weeks ago.  Alba have had a poor result, which looks like normal service being resumed after a few OK-ish results towards the end of last year - although there may have been an element of smoke and mirrors to those better results, because Alba were sitting out most by-elections and concentrating all their resources into a very small number of good prospects.  And the Tories seem to be suffering horrendously from the Reform surge.

For the uninitiated, Sovereignty are a right-wing pro-independence party which some have touted as a kind of 'indy Reform', but they certainly aren't getting much traction so far.

By the way, Twechar is very close to Queenzieburn, which was within the catchment area of my secondary school and I was therefore baffled for years by the "Twechar Beach" references.  I thought it was high time for you to be baffled too.

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Source: Strange happenings on Twechar Beach as Labour flatline but still make a by-election gain