[SCOT goes POP!] Nigel Farage on course for Downing Street as cataclysmic Find Out Now poll sees Reform move into record-breaking six point lead

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Nigel Farage on course for Downing Street as cataclysmic Find Out Now poll sees Reform move into record-breaking six point lead

GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 12th February 2025):

Reform UK 29% (-)

Labour 23% (-2)

Conservatives 21% (+3)

Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)

Greens 9% (-1)

SNP 3% (-)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 34%, Reform UK 25%, Conservatives 13%, Labour 12%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Greens 6%

As the data tables are already available, I've given you the Scottish subsample numbers for the sheer hell of it, but bear in mind that non-YouGov Scottish subsamples are unlikely to be statistically reliable.

This is the biggest lead Reform UK have ever had in any poll from any pollster, although interestingly they've achieved it while remaining on a static vote share - remember this week's More In Common poll also suggests a more or less static picture for Reform, so it remains to be seen whether the bandwagon is still relentlessly rolling.

23% is not quite a post-election low for Labour - they've been on both 22% and 23% in previous Find Out Now polls, but not at a time when Reform UK were as high as now - hence the record-breaking Reform lead.  Now that Reform have pulled away from the pack somewhat, it's probably a good moment to attempt a seats projection and see just how close Farage is (or isn't) to an absolute majority.  Drumroll please...

Reform UK 269

Labour 141

Conservatives 106

Liberal Democrats 60

SNP 46

Greens 4

Plaid Cymru 2

Others 22

That leaves Reform a hefty 57 seats short of a majority, but on those numbers there's no plausible permutation that doesn't put Nigel Farage in 10 Downing Street.  Even Labour and the Tories in combination don't outnumber Reform.  Ah, the joys of first-past-the-post.

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Source: Nigel Farage on course for Downing Street as cataclysmic Find Out Now poll sees Reform move into record-breaking six point lead