[SCOT goes POP!] It looks increasingly like the Swinney plan hasn't been thought through

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It looks increasingly like the Swinney plan hasn't been thought through

We still don't know whether there will be a contested SNP leadership election between John Swinney and Kate Forbes.  If there is, I agree with the conventional wisdom that Swinney would start as favourite (he's literally the only potential candidate who would start as favourite against Forbes), but I disagree with those assuming the outcome would be a foregone conclusion.  Those people are laying a lot of emphasis on the sentimental attachment that the SNP rank-and-file have for Swinney, and I don't think there's much doubt that if SNP conference delegates or attendees of branch meetings were deciding the outcome, Swinney would win.  But the SNP's membership is a lot broader than the active core, and I'm not sure we have clear evidence that the sentimentality runs as deep with the more passive members - or, if it does, that it outweighs a similar warmth towards Forbes after her successful stint as Finance Secretary and her near-miss in the leadership vote last year.

The other point people are overlooking is that Forbes may have a killer argument to deploy against Swinney during the hustings, namely that she would be fully committed to the job, whereas he might only want it for a year or two, thus guaranteeing that the party will be plunged back into uncertainty in the very near future.  The mood music seems to be that Swinney would just be seeing the SNP through until the 2026 Holyrood election, but if you think about that, what does it actually mean?  You can't lead a party during an election campaign while planning to step down immediately afterwards, because opposition parties would say voters are being asked to buy a pig in a poke.  Realistically Swinney would have two choices - either commit to the role until at least 2028 (which he probably doesn't want to do), or say he will stand down by the autumn of next year to allow a new leader enough time to prepare for the Holyrood election.  The latter would mean he'd be in harness for a maximum of just eighteen months - not much longer than Yousaf managed.

If Forbes hammers home the point that members have a choice between a leader who wants to see it through until independence is achieved, and a caretaker leader who would just prolong the agonies of the current leadership crisis, she might just put enough doubts in the minds of members to help them set aside any sentimental feelings for Swinney.

Source: It looks increasingly like the Swinney plan hasn't been thought through