[SCOT goes POP!] More despair for Starmer as Labour loses its outright lead in Scotland, and support for independence remains high at 48% - but Humza Yousaf's worst personal numbers yet suggest the SNP must sort out its leadership problem *before* the

[ALBA-Bot]

More despair for Starmer as Labour loses its outright lead in Scotland, and support for independence remains high at 48% - but Humza Yousaf's worst personal numbers yet suggest the SNP must sort out its leadership problem *before* the general election

The monthly Redfield & Wilton poll is out, and in a continuation of the familiar pattern, support for independence is impressively high but just can't seem to break into the outright lead.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Redfield & Wilton)

Yes 48% (-)

No 52% (-)

Before Don't Knows are stripped out, the No lead has actually dipped slightly from four points to three.

On Westminster voting intentions, Redfield & Wilton have been oscillating recently between small Labour leads and level-pegging, and we're back once again to the latter today.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 34% (+1)

Labour 34% (-)

Conservatives 16% (-2)

Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)

Reform UK 4% (-)

Greens 4% (+2)

Alba 1% (-)

Seats projection (with changes from 2019 general election): Labour 27 (+26), SNP 20 (-28), Conservatives 6 (-), Liberal Democrats 4 (-)

As you can see from the seats projection, level-pegging just isn't quite good enough for the SNP, because when the two largest parties are closely matched, first-past-the-post starts working firmly in Labour's favour.

But what will concern the SNP more than the seats projection (or at least ought to) is Humza Yousaf's personal numbers, because headline voting intentions are often less predictive of election results than leadership ratings.  Last month's Redfield & Wilton poll showed Yousaf slumping to a new all-time low net rating of -17.  He essentially hasn't recovered from that at all this month, bouncing back only to -16.  

But it gets worse.  Redfield & Wilton also regularly ask alternative leadership questions, pitting Yousaf in separate head-to-heads with Anas Sarwar and Douglas Ross respectively.  Until last month, Yousaf had always come out on top on those questions, perhaps suggesting an underlying respect for his basic competence that the net ratings don't pick up.  But last month, Anas Sarwar drew level with him for the first time, and this month Sarwar has overtaken him for the first time.

At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better First Minister of Scotland?

Anas Sarwar 32% (-1)

Humza Yousaf 31% (-2) 

Arguably even more dismal is the head-to head with Ross.  Here Yousaf clings on to a six-point lead, but that is staggeringly low in the context of the current Tory unpopularity, and also in the context of Ross being widely regarded as a joke leader.

At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better First Minister of Scotland?

Humza Yousaf 36% (-3) 

Douglas Ross 30% (+2) 

We all know Yousaf is only where he is for factional reasons, ie. the ruling Sturgeon faction identified him as their least worst candidate available and pulled out all the stops to get him installed as leader.  But there comes a point where the electoral crisis is great enough that factional interest has to give way to party interest.  There is simply no point in retaining factional control of a party that cannot win at the ballot box.  There are no guarantees, but if Yousaf is replaced by a more popular leader (probably Kate Forbes) before the general election, the likelihood is that the SNP vote will recover a bit, and that might make the difference between defeat and victory.  And even if Yousaf stays in harness, bringing an end to factional rule by appointing a unity Cabinet with Forbes in a senior position could have some positive effect.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 35% (-)

Labour 31% (-2)

Conservatives 18% (-)

Liberal Democrats 5% (-3)

Reform UK 4% (+1)

Alba 3% (+2)

Greens 3% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

Labour 29% (-)

SNP 28% (+1)

Conservatives 16% (-)

Greens 9% (-)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-)

Reform UK 5% (-)

Alba 3% (-)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 42 (-22), Labour 41 (+19), Conservatives 21 (-10), Liberal Democrats 12 (+8), Greens 10 (+2), Reform UK 3 (+3)

The Holyrood voting intention changes are for the most part statistically insignificant, although because they're in the SNP's favour, they're still enough to push the SNP back into a slight lead in the seats projection - albeit with fewer seats than Alex Salmond had when the SNP first took power with a precarious one-seat advantage in 2007.  In spite of what has been said in some quarters, I'm not sure it's impossible that the SNP could retain minority power on numbers like these.  Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be well short of a majority between them, and once you add external support from the Tories into the mix, the arrangement becomes presentationally very messy.

Alba will be moderately heartened by these numbers - they're still not projected to win any seats, but they're only two points behind Reform UK, who are projected to win three seats.  So that shows you what's possible with a modest increase of support.

*  *  *

The 2024 Scot Goes Pop fundraiser is now underway.  Please click HERE if you'd like to help keep this blog going strong throughout this crucial general election year.

Alternatively donations can be made direct to my Paypal account.  In many ways this is preferable because the funds are usually transferred instantly, and fees can be eliminated altogether depending on which option you select from the menu.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Source: More despair for Starmer as Labour loses its outright lead in Scotland, and support for independence remains high at 48% - but Humza Yousaf's worst personal numbers yet suggest the SNP must sort out its leadership problem *before* the general election