[SCOT goes POP!] More analysis of the remarkable Find Out Now MRP poll showing the SNP on course for 40 seats at the general election

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More analysis of the remarkable Find Out Now MRP poll showing the SNP on course for 40 seats at the general election

Just a quick note to let you know I have an analysis piece in The National today about last night's Find Out Now MRP poll - you can read it HERE, and it's also in the print edition.

There was some discussion in the last thread about whether a projection of 40 seats for the SNP can really be considered a "landslide" given that it would be a drop of eight seats, and whether a projection of 13 seats for Labour can really be considered a "flop" given that it would be a gain of twelve seats.  This is an example of how the expectations game changes the supposed "meaning" of election results.  The 2017 result was objectively excellent for the SNP by historical standards, but the media were able to treat it as a disaster because everyone was expecting better.  At present, expectations for Labour in Scotland have gone sky-high, and thus if they fall well short of becoming the largest party, it's going to look like abject failure.  Conversely, 40 seats for the SNP would now strengthen rather than weaken Humza Yousaf's position.  I still don't think that's at all likely to be the outcome, especially not after an 'away fixture' campaign dominated by London media coverage of London parties.  But there's no doubt that there's now a genuine and important difference of opinion between different pollsters on the current state of play in Scotland.

Source: More analysis of the remarkable Find Out Now MRP poll showing the SNP on course for 40 seats at the general election