[SCOT goes POP!] New Ipsos poll shows Humza Yousaf's net approval rating has now slumped to -20, well behind both Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer - pointing to potential disaster for the SNP if Yousaf leads them into the next Westminster and Holyrood ele

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New Ipsos poll shows Humza Yousaf's net approval rating has now slumped to -20, well behind both Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer - pointing to potential disaster for the SNP if Yousaf leads them into the next Westminster and Holyrood elections

We've been in a weird 'polling desert' since the Murrell scandal broke a few days ago, but at last we do have some up to date numbers.  Again, they come from polling of the general public rather than SNP members.  However, there appears to have been a YouGov poll of SNP members in the field for around a week, so we'll have to see if that eventually shows up, perhaps at the weekend.

The new Ipsos numbers come in the form of net approval ratings for each candidate and for other senior politicians.  They show Nicola Sturgeon's rating improving (just in time for that to no longer matter) while almost everyone else's falls.  Both Anas Sarwar and Kate Forbes have slipped into negative territory since the last poll, but the bad news for Humza Yousaf - who was already in negative territory in the last poll - is that he has slumped even deeper into the red and thus remains way behind both Sarwar and Forbes.

Ipsos net approval ratings (17th-21st March 2023):

Nicola Sturgeon (SNP): +8

Anas Sarwar (Labour): -4

Kate Forbes (SNP): -8

Keir Starmer (Labour): -9

Humza Yousaf (SNP): -20

Ash Regan (SNP): -24

Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -37

Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -39

So the concern remains the same.  Kate Forbes looks capable of competing with Labour's leaders on a roughly equal footing, but Humza Yousaf does not - which gives us fair warning that a Yousaf-led SNP would be likely to suffer seat losses in the next Westminster and Holyrood elections, and possibly to surrender power to Labour.

Incidentally, some random troll quoted these exact numbers at me last night on Twitter, several hours before they were published, although he had the fieldwork dates wrong.  I'd be interested to know how that was possible, although I have my suspicions.  He seemed to think the numbers were somehow good for Yousaf, possibly because he didn't spot the minus symbol before the 20!

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Source: New Ipsos poll shows Humza Yousaf's net approval rating has now slumped to -20, well behind both Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer - pointing to potential disaster for the SNP if Yousaf leads them into the next Westminster and Holyrood elections