[SCOT goes POP!] Kate Forbes holds a clear lead in yet another poll - this time from Panelbase

[ALBA-Bot]

Kate Forbes holds a clear lead in yet another poll - this time from Panelbase

Voters' favoured choice as next SNP leader (Panelbase / Sunday Times, 21st-24th February 2023)

Kate Forbes 23%

Humza Yousaf 15%

Ash Regan 7%

Again, the crucial point here is the fieldwork dates - the witch-hunt against Kate Forbes from the media and a few of her colleagues began on the evening of the 20th, so the poll was entirely conducted after that watershed moment in the campaign, and some of it was conducted well afterwards.  So it looks like Ms Forbes' popularity is proving pretty resilient, which perhaps means voters aren't as bothered about her religious views as some people were counting on.

Apparently (and I'm taking this from social media so don't take it as gospel), Ms Forbes also has a lead among the subsample of SNP voters in the poll, but it's a smaller one: Kate Forbes 20%, Humza Yousaf 18%, Ash Regan 9%. Only SNP members can vote in this contest, and it could be argued that if Ms Forbes only has a narrow lead among SNP voters, it's conceivable that Humza Yousaf has some sort of lead among actual members.  But what we must always remember is that SNP leaders are elected by preferential voting, which means that if Ash Regan finishes third, her supporters' votes will be transferred to whoever they ranked second.  And it seems highly likely that those Regan second preferences will break heavily for Forbes.  So at the very least this looks like a highly competitive race, and it's arguable that (contrary to the assumptions of some pundits) Kate Forbes should even be regarded as the frontrunner right at this moment.

UPDATE: It turns out Panelbase also have net personal ratings for each candidate, and on those the gap between Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf is much, much wider.

Kate Forbes: +14

Humza Yousaf: -16

I haven't found Ash Regan's rating yet, but she'll probably be in second place on this measure.  (The reason I'm struggling to find some of the results is that I don't pay the Murdoch Levy and thus can't read the full Sunday Times article.)

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Source: Kate Forbes holds a clear lead in yet another poll - this time from Panelbase