[SCOT goes POP!] What would be the consequences of a Johnson victory for the independence campaign?

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What would be the consequences of a Johnson victory for the independence campaign?

According to the BBC, "Rees-Mogg says Johnson will stand".  My first reaction was that I'm still not convinced, but actually with only 27 hours to go until nominations close, the conceptual gap between Johnson "standing" and "not standing" may not be all that wide.  Pulling out two hours before the deadline because it's obvious that he's not going to make the threshold of 100 backers has exactly the same effect as falling short when the clock runs out.

Much has been made of the consequences for the Tory party if Johnson wins, but it must be remembered that Sunak winning on nominations alone isn't exactly a consequence-free outcome either.  There'll be tremendous bitterness among the membership about an obvious stitch-up, because it seems likely that if the rules had been the same as for the summer leadership election, Johnson would have won.  It may be fortunate for the Tories that their members have limited powers to take revenge directly, although indirect pressure could be applied via MPs who feel they have to take heed of their constituency associations.

From an independence-supporting point of view, one case for Johnson I haven't mentioned yet is that a victory for him is probably the only hope of an early general election, due to the prospect of significant numbers of Tory MPs resigning the whip in protest.  But the mood music suggests that the SNP leadership would back off from using an early election as a de facto referendum (what a surprise), a Labour government would almost certainly be elected, and Labour's momentum might see the SNP lose a number of seats (potentially quite a significant number).  So it's hard to see how we'd be any further forward.  The only advantage I can think of is that with a further general election not due until 2027 or 2028, the SNP leadership might then find itself under increasing internal pressure to bring about a snap Holyrood vote and use that as a plebiscite - which, it now seems apparent, would be the most promising way of seeking an independence mandate.

Latest from the betting markets:

Rishi Sunak: 1.4

Boris Johnson: 3.9

Penny Mordaunt: 34

This means Sunak's price has tightened since my last update and Johnson has drifted.  That doesn't tell the whole story, though, because Johnson had drifted to as far as 5 overnight and has since come back in somewhat, possibly due to Rees-Mogg's comments and Zahawi's endorsement.  The implied probability of a Sunak victory is now 71%, with Johnson having a 26% chance.

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