[SCOT goes POP!] Are the Tories vanishing into history? Landmark new YouGov poll has them in FOURTH place, with barely half the vote of Reform UK

[ALBA-Bot]

Are the Tories vanishing into history?  Landmark new YouGov poll has them in FOURTH place, with barely half the vote of Reform UK

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov / Sky, 18th-19th May 2025):

Reform UK 29% (+1)
Labour 22% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (-2)
Greens 10% (+1)

SNP 2% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

The data tables don't appear to be on the YouGov website yet, so take the SNP figure with a pinch of salt - I'm getting it from the Wikipedia list of polls, but the only source listed there is a tweet from Sam Coates, and that tweet excludes the SNP figure altogether.

I've speculated for ages about a potential tipping point where Reform UK clearly establish themselves as the main right-wing challengers to Labour and the remaining Tory vote starts to melt away as a result.  Are we now looking at that tipping point?  If so, will Tory MPs start to defect to Reform in significant numbers?

It's also worth pointing out that Labour are still not properly in mid-term yet, so there's a very real potential for them to end up in fourth or even fifth place at some point during this parliament.

UPDATE: The data tables are now out, and although the SNP's unusually low 2% GB-wide vote share is confirmed, the Scottish subsample is OK for them: SNP 28%, Labour 19%, Reform UK 18%, Liberal Democrats 15%, Greens 11%, Conservatives 8%.  It may be the implausibly high Green vote that has led to the SNP being a touch lower than normal.

Source: Are the Tories vanishing into history?  Landmark new YouGov poll has them in FOURTH place, with barely half the vote of Reform UK