[SCOT goes POP!] Reform hit another record high with another polling firm - this time Techne

Started by ALBA-Bot, Feb 22, 2025, 12:38 PM

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Feb 22, 2025, 12:38 PM
Reform hit another record high with another polling firm - this time Techne

GB-wide voting intentions (19th-20th February 2025):

Reform UK 26% (+1)
Labour 25% (-1)
Conservatives 22% (-)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-)
Greens 7% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)

This is another landmark for Reform UK - it's their highest ever vote share in a Techne poll, and the first time they've ever been in the outright lead with Techne, although they held a joint lead once before.  As someone pointed out in the comments section yesterday, every pollster that has conducted a poll this month is now showing a Reform lead, with the sole exception of Opinium.

We must of course spare a thought this morning for Stuart Campbell, who had arguably his worst day yesterday since his legal defeat to Kezia Dugdale several years ago.  He somehow managed to convince himself that Reform were going to come out in favour of an indyref - which is just about the most improbable story you can ever imagine, right up there with "Netanyahu voluntarily hands over East Jerusalem to new Palestinian state".  But Campbell got all excited about it and wrote a lengthy blogpost convincing his devotees that it was really happening - only for Reform to utterly predictably slap him down about five seconds later, and for good measure mock the Tories for being stupid enough to believe something they read on Wings.

Campbell may be a disreputable figure, but he is also intelligent, so how on earth did he manage to make such a fool of himself by falling for such an obviously bogus story?  I suspect it's our old friend Wishful Thinking once again.  Campbell is increasingly making very little secret of his support and admiration for Donald Trump, and he's therefore gagging to come out in support of MAGA's de facto UK sister party.  The Narnia twist of Reform backing an indyref would have given him a readymade excuse for doing it.  I suspect he'll still do it anyway, but his stated reasoning will have to be a lot more convoluted - and thus highly entertaining.

In truth, the Reform surge could actually help to bring about independence, but in an indirect way.  Somewhat more plausible than Reform backing an indyref would be a Reform government scrapping devolution - and that would be very likely to produce a big majority for independence.  Even if they don't go that far, a Reform government taking Scotland out of the ECHR would probably be enough to drive many liberal No voters to Yes.

*   *   *

As you may have seen, the BBC have shamefully removed a documentary about Gaza from the iPlayer under heavy pressure from the Israel lobby, including direct pressure from the far-right Israeli ambassador Tzipi Hotovely.  Hopefully this will be an example of the 'Streisand effect' whereby the documentary actually ends up being seen by more people as a result of the attempts to conceal it than it otherwise would have been.  The whole programme can be seen in the tweet below, so please retweet it if you have a Twitter account.




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