See what I mean about the way in which the unionist media seeks to bury independence polling results these days? This is clearly a hugely significant result - it's the eighth poll in a row from the formerly No-friendly firm Norstat to show a pro-independence majority, and it's the second-biggest Yes lead recorded by any pollster so far this year. And yet you'd practically need a magnifying glass to find it in the Sunday Times' write-up of the poll.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Norstat / Sunday Times, 27th-30th April 2026)
Yes 55% (+3)
No 45% (-3)
Across the polling industry, there have now been nineteen independence polls in 2026. Thirteen have shown a Yes lead, just four have shown a No lead, and the other two were tied. My own view is that it's particularly significant that the Yes vote seems to be going up rather than down, or at the very least is holding steady, in the heat of an election campaign - because in similar situations in the past we've often seen a temporary surge for No.
Meanwhile the Holyrood numbers from the poll ought to serve as a wake-up call for any independence supporters reading this who may be toying with the idea of playing silly buggers by throwing their list votes away on no-hoper fringe parties. Not only does the seats projection suggest the SNP are falling quite a bit short of an overall majority, but the Greens are also failing to do well enough to make a pro-independence majority secure. The SNP and Greens in combination are projected to take 68 seats, which is a majority, but they have very little safety-margin left.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 36% (+2)
Labour 20% (+1)
Reform UK 16% (+1)
Conservatives 14% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 28% (-2)
Reform UK 17% (+2)
Labour 17% (-)
Conservatives 14% (+4)
Greens 12% (-)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-)
Seats projection:
SNP 57
Reform UK 19
Conservatives 16
Labour 16
Greens 11
Liberal Democrats 10
Don't be deceived by the fact that the SNP constituency vote has increased - that's only happened because Norstat are now excluding the Greens as an option in most constituencies, so if anything the fact that the SNP have only gained two points may suggest a slight real terms dip in their support over the course of the campaign.
The effect of unionist media outlets commissioning polls can be seen in the supplementary question that was chosen about the SNP's policy of capping food prices - instead of asking the blindingly obvious question of whether voters support the policy or not, the Sunday Times asked for the silly Brit Nat hobby-horse question about whether or not the SNP would *deliver* the policy (which of course may depend on how obstructive Westminster prove to be).
A more useful supplementary question demonstrates that the voters have been more impressed by the campaigns run by the pro-independence parties than by the unionist campaigns -
Proportion of voters "impressed" by each party's campaign:
SNP 30%
Greens 24%
Labour 21%
Reform UK 19%
Conservatives 17%
Liberal Democrats 16%
That's not simply because voters have been more aware of the SNP's campaigning. The SNP also have the lowest figure for those who are "not impressed" by each party's campaign.
Proportion of voters "not impressed" by each party's campaign:
Reform UK 59%
Conservatives 56%
Labour 51%
Greens 49%
Liberal Democrats 48%
SNP 45%
A recent Ipsos poll showed a very similar picture of how voters were reacting to the campaigns.
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Source: Scotland moves a step closer to independence as earth-shaking Norstat poll shows Yes support has surged to an astonishing 55% (//)