As you may have seen, a new Find Out Now MRP poll commissioned by The National is suggesting that the SNP are on course for an overall majority at the Holyrood election. They would take 67 seats, all on the constituency ballot. I've been trying to work out what those 67 are, or to put it more simply which six constituencies they
wouldn't win, but so far I'm struggling with navigation in the table of results - if anyone can let me know in the comments section, that would be great. It's probably safe to assume that Orkney and Shetland will both be staying Liberal Democrat, but I wouldn't want to guess which other four constituencies are projected to be in the unionist column. The basic figures are -
SNP 67
Labour 17
Greens 14
Reform UK 14
Conservatives 10
Liberal Democrats 7
I have a new article at The National discussing the track record of past MRP projections, which you can read
HERE.
UPDATE: OK, thanks to Michael and Keith in the comments section, we now know which six constituencies are projected to elude the SNP. They are:
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross (LibDems)
Edinburgh North Western (LibDems)
Edinburgh Southern (Lab)
Fife North East (LibDems)
Orkney Islands (LibDems)
Shetland Islands (LibDems)
That means the SNP are projected to enjoy a whole string of eyebrow-raising wins elsewhere:
Dumbarton: I'm struggling with this one. It should be a Labour hold on the basis of the swing in national polls, and bearing in mind the track record of tactical voting in the constituency, it's hard to see how the SNP take it.
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire: An SNP gain is possible here, but it's like trying to thread a needle - the unionist vote would have to be divided almost perfectly. Unlikely in my view.
Dumfriesshire: A bit more plausible, but still a very tough one - the SNP are starting from ten points behind the Tories.
Galloway & West Dumfries: The most winnable of the three Blue Wall seats in the south, and the SNP have a past track record of success here, although on the basis of national trends they would still be expected to fall just short. But I can accept this one as a plausible SNP gain.
Banffshire & Buchan Coast: The SNP look vulnerable here to both the Tories and Reform, but it's by no means outlandish to think they'll hold on.
Aberdeenshire West: On paper this doesn't look promising for the SNP, but we keep hearing the Tory canvass results in the northeast are dreadful, so yes, this is a possible gain.
Inverness & Nairn: I don't think anybody really knows yet what the impact of Fergus Ewing's independent candidacy will be, so there's a big question mark on this one.
East Lothian Coast & Lammermuirs: Looked like a lost cause not that long ago, but could now be very close.
Edinburgh Central, Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill and Glasgow Southside have all been touted as Green gains. As previously explained, those predictions are based on a smoke-and-mirrors statistical exercise and shouldn't be taken seriously, but with an effective Green campaign the SNP are not necessarily safe in any of the three, and they're also vulnerable to Labour in Edinburgh Central. Each of the three in isolation looks like a probable SNP hold, but is it really likely their luck will hold out in all three? Even if just one of the three were to go to Labour or the Greens, it would make winning an overall majority very tough.
So as you can see I'm still very sceptical about the prospects of a single-party overall majority, but believe me about one thing: I do want to believe.
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Source: Find Out Now - ZAP WHAM POW - that a new MRP poll shows the SNP on course for an overall majority (//)