#Referendum2023 : Time to unveil the Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls as our guaranteed referendum fast approaches"The key thing is that we will take these steps in a timescale that facilitate that referendum before the end of 2023, which is the commitment I made at the election and was elected on overwhelmingly at the election." -
Nicola Sturgeon, SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland, January 2022
"The Scottish Government fully intends to fulfill its manifesto commitment to the people of Scotland...Speaking on Wednesday the First Minister said that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had not changed her view that a second independence referendum should go ahead in 2023...Of course some people are never going to be satisfied because they have convinced themselves that the SNP 'doesn't really' want a referendum, and nothing that Nicola Sturgeon says or does is going to shift them from that view, however for the rest of us the First Minister's statement is a welcome confirmation that an independence referendum will indeed go ahead in the latter half of 2023." - Paul Kavanagh, SNP-supporting blogger, March 2022
It's a commitment. It's confirmed. It's a certainty. It's simply a fact, and there's no going back. Thanks to the majority SNP-Green government's #2023ReferendumGuarantee, up to four million Scots will be visiting their local polling stations (or casting a postal ballot) at some point during 2023 to decide whether or not their country should become independent, or should continue to be governed by Tories in London. The referendum is of course coming three or four years too late to prevent Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its will, as the SNP originally promised us they would do - but hey, better late than never, and thankfully because of the SNP's current promises, there is no danger whatsoever of any further delay beyond December 2023. The absolute last date on which #Referendum2023 can be held is 21st December 2023, which thrillingly means it's now a MAXIMUM of just 584 days away!
As we're on the last lap before we enter full-blown campaigning for a 2023 referendum that is DEFINITELY taking place, it's long past time that I resurrected the Scot Goes Pop independence Poll of Polls, so we can see how public opinion evolves as referendum day approaches next year. As in the run-up to the first referendum eight years ago, I'll be using an average of the most recent poll from each of the polling firms that have been active within the last few months.
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS FOR #Referendum2023
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 44.3%
No 46.1%
With Don't Knows excluded:
Yes 49.0%
No 51.0%
(Note: the above averages are based on seven polls - one from Savanta ComRes, one from Survation, one from YouGov, one from Panelbase, one from Opinium, one from BMG and one from Ipsos-Mori.)
So it's not at all hard to see why the majority SNP-Green government decided to guarantee that a referendum will take place before the end of 2023 - Yes practically have the support of half the population once undecideds are stripped out, which is a truly fabulous platform on which to start any campaign. (Remember that there were polls in the early stages of the first indyref campaign that showed No ahead by a 2-1 margin.)
Source: #Referendum2023 : Time to unveil the Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls as our guaranteed referendum fast approaches (//)