For today's YouTube commentary, I bring you the results of the weekly GB-wide poll from YouGov, which are unusually good for the SNP on the Scottish subsample. I also discuss Andy Maciver's view that John Swinney's new independence strategy, insisting that only a single-party outright majority for the SNP will count as a mandate for independence referendum, "accepts the fact" that independence is off the agenda. I explain why Mr Maciver is wrong about that, because John Swinney is not accepting a fact - he's needlessly creating a reality that forces independence off the agenda for at least five years. The SNP faces a choice of two futures at its conference, because Mr Swinney's target of an SNP-only majority is totally unachievable, whereas the alternative proposal of seeking an outright mandate for independence on the list ballot, and with votes for all pro-indy parties contributing to that mandate, is perfectly achievable, and if successful would push independence right back onto the agenda again. Why is John Swinney pushing for obviously the wrong one of those two strategies?
It may be that he wants to get back to his comfort zone, and intends to engineer a situation where he can say "we went all out for a cast-iron mandate that couldn't be ignored, but fell pitifully short - that shows how far away we are from building the trust of the people, and we now have to accept that's going to be a very long-term project". I think that may be part of it, but it's not the whole explanation. I think he also believes that the SNP will get a better election result by linking independence to votes for the SNP alone and setting the unattainable target, and he is therefore using independence as a tool to win elections for the SNP, which he regards as an end in itself. He therefore isn't unduly concerned if the independence cause is harmed along the way. Most SNP members, I would suggest, think it should be the other way around - they understand that independence is the goal, and that the SNP should be used as a tool to win that goal.
You can watch the video on the embedded player below, or at this link.