Marcia on the previous thread pointed out that the SNP are on an unusually high 4% in the latest GB-wide Ipsos poll. So I had a look at the data tables to see if I could find the Scottish subsample figures, and they didn't disappoint...
GB-wide voting intentions (Ipsos, 30th May-4th June 2025):
Reform UK 34%
Labour 25%
Conservatives 15%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Greens 9%
SNP 4%
Plaid Cymru 1%
Scottish subsample: SNP 41%, Reform UK 30%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Greens 3%, Conservatives 3%
Having talked the subsample up, I'm now going to have to talk it back down again, because Ipsos are not like YouGov, so the Scottish figures are probably not correctly weighted. However, 4% for the SNP in the GB-wide numbers, which are properly weighted, is not at all shabby - and this is the latest in a string of decent GB-wide polls for the party since their setback in the Hamilton by-election, although curiously the fieldwork for this poll took place before that vote.
Why the long delay? It may have something to do with Ipsos rolling out a new methodology - they seem to be changing their emphasis from telephone polling to an adjusted version of online panel polling (one of the adjustments being that panel members are recruited offline). I don't know whether that will affect their long-running series of Scottish telephone polls commissioned by STV. But certainly the headline numbers do look a bit different from polls conducted by other firms - as far as I can see, Reform's 34% is an all-time high across all pollsters, beating even the 33% previously recorded by Find Out Now a couple of times in May. The gap between Labour in second place and the Tories in third is also bigger than other firms have been showing.
Incidentally, Ipsos have given Alba propagandists no hiding place in this poll, because it looks like Alba were offered as an option, but recorded a big fat zero in the Scottish subsample.
Net ratings for party leaders:
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -15
Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -15
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -49
Keir Starmer (Labour): -54
Percentage of respondents who rate each party leader *positively*:
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): 34%
Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): 23%
Keir Starmer (Labour): 19%
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): 11%
I think it's fair to conclude from the above numbers that Labour are unlikely to turn things around unless they either change leader or drastically improve Starmer's reputation with the public. The latter is far harder to do than the former. It's always said that Labour are not as ruthless as the Tories and don't dump their leaders in a crisis - but if they don't, they may already be toast, and Nigel Farage may be the next Prime Minister.
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jkellysta@yahoo.co.ukSource: Majesty. Grandeur. The Taj Mahal of polling crossbreaks. SNP hit 41% in simply sumptuous Ipsos subsample. (//)