Normal service is resumed as SNP bounce back to hold a commanding lead in latest YouGov subsampleThe full-scale Scottish poll from Norstat showing a decent SNP lead was already enough to say with a reasonable level of confidence that the recent weird string of Scottish subsample results from GB-wide polls had been leading us astray, but it's nevertheless reassuring to see normal service being resumed in the latest YouGov subsample.
GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 1st-2nd June 2025):
Reform UK 28% (-1)
Labour 22% (+1)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+2)
Greens 9% (-2)
SNP 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 38%, Reform UK 26%, Labour 17%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Conservatives 7%, Greens 3%
It's passing by without much comment, but the Scottish Tories seem to be sleepwalking towards...well, maybe not quite an extinction event, because they'll probably still have Holyrood seats after next year, but they look set to be downgraded from the leading opposition party to fourth, fifth or sixth place.
Meanwhile at GB-wide level, the Tories once again find themselves more or less level-pegging with the Liberal Democrats.
*. *. *.
I have a new article at The National, looking ahead to the Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse by-election - you can read it
HERE.
Source: Normal service is resumed as SNP bounce back to hold a commanding lead in latest YouGov subsample (//)