Scotland staying in the UK now means staying in a country which seems to want Nigel Farage as Prime Minister - new doomsday poll shows Reform in the OUTRIGHT LEADIt always felt like it was only ever a matter of time, and it's finally happened. There had already been polls showing Reform UK in the joint lead, but the new poll from Find Out Now is the first to show them in the outright lead (or rather the first since their rebrand in early 2021 from Brexit Party to Reform). And it's not just a tiny one-point lead, either - there's a little bit of daylight.
GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 22nd January 2025):
Reform UK 26% (+1)
Conservatives 23% (-2)
Labour 22% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-)
Greens 10% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
This poll is a landmark in other ways too. 26% seems to be a post-rebrand high watermark for Reform, not just with Find Out Now but with any firm. 22% is the lowest vote share Labour has recorded with any polling firm since the general election, and although I'm not going to trawl through records going back to the 1940s, I would imagine it must be pretty close to an all-time low for them, or at least a post-Second World War low.
There's also a Techne poll which has Labour clinging on to a one-point lead, with the Tories and Reform in joint second. However, that's not much comfort for Keir Starmer, because Labour's 25% in that poll is a post-election low with Techne, while Reform are on an all-time high of 24% with the firm. So although polling firms disagree with each other about which party is in the lead, the trend looks clear - Labour are still drifting downwards and Reform are still climbing upwards. I wouldn't like to place any bets on just how much lower Labour are capable of going.
Source: Scotland staying in the UK now means staying in a country which seems to want Nigel Farage as Prime Minister - new doomsday poll shows Reform in the OUTRIGHT LEAD (//)