Another by-election setback for Labour - they finish just TWO VOTES ahead of SNP in West Fife, with the average swing in yesterday's two elections pointing to a national SNP lead of 13 or 14 percentage pointsWest Fife & Coastal Villages by-election result on first preference votes (28th November 2024)
Labour 33.2% (+0.7)
SNP 33.2% (-2.7)
Conservatives 16.1% (-1.0)
Liberal Democrats 8.6% (+1.9)
Greens 4.6% (+0.5)
Independent - Morton 2.4% (n/a)
Scottish Family Party 2.0% (n/a)
On raw votes, Labour topped the first preference poll by just two votes (881 to 879) - there's no way they would have been expecting it to be that tight. The swing from SNP to Labour was a miniscule 1.7%, which remember is measured from the baseline of the 2022 local elections, when the SNP were still more than 12 percentage points ahead of Labour nationally. So if the by-election result is extrapolated nationally, it would point to an SNP lead over Labour of around nine points.
As you'll have seen, there was actually a swing to the SNP in
the other by-election yesterday. If the two swings are averaged, they come to a 0.6% swing to the SNP, which would suggest that the SNP are around thirteen or fourteen points ahead of Labour nationally.
Source: Another by-election setback for Labour - they finish just TWO VOTES ahead of SNP in West Fife, with the average swing in yesterday's two elections pointing to a national SNP lead of 13 or 14 percentage points (//)