It's rather fitting that the day that marks the passing of a generation since the independence referendum has brought word of what could turn out to be a landmark polling moment that puts the SNP firmly back on track to win a fifth term in power at the Holyrood election of 2026.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Opinium, 5th-11th September 2024):
SNP 32%
Labour 25%
Conservatives 14%
Reform UK 11%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Greens 7%
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 32%
Labour 25%
Conservatives 12%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 30%
Greens 25%
Labour 25%
Conservatives 12%
Liberal Democrats 8%
I know the Green figure on the list looks wildly implausible, and it probably is wrong, but at the moment the only place I can find the Holyrood numbers is on John Curtice's What Scotland Thinks site, and 25% for the Greens is what it says. I can't see any sign of the numbers in the Opinium datasets or on social media, so if anyone can point me in the right direction, please do. It may in reality be a combined figure of 25% for the Greens and the assorted 'others'. But even if that is the case, there doesn't appear to be any reason to doubt that the SNP are several points ahead of Labour across the board, which is an extraordinary achievement at a stage of the electoral cycle when Labour should be still enjoying their honeymoon with the electorate. I've said this before, but if this is as good as it gets for Labour, they've got a major problem on their hands.
So when, you might wonder, was there last a poll as good as this one for the SNP? On paper the answer is as recently as January, when the Ipsos / STV poll gave the SNP a Westminster lead over Labour of 39% to 32%. However, that's not really comparable, because Ipsos telephone polls have tended to be more favourable for both Yes and the SNP than most polls from online firms. For the most recent online poll as good as today's, you'd have to go all the way back to September of last year when another Opinium poll had the SNP nine points clear. And in case you're wondering, it's doubtful that there's an Opinium house effect at play here, because the Opinium poll during the general election campaign had Labour ahead, albeit admittedly not by quite as much as in the election result itself.
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UPDATE: If Wikipedia is to be believed, the What Scotland Thinks version of the numbers is indeed wrong, and the real figures on the list are: SNP 30%, Labour 25%, Reform UK 12%, Conservatives 12%, Greens 8%, Liberal Democrats 8%. It appears that Reform UK also have a remarkable 12% of the constituency vote. That means the seats projection works out as SNP 47, Labour 33, Reform UK 16, Conservatives 16, Greens 9, Liberal Democrats 8. The pro-independence parties would be well short of a majority between them, but it's a struggle to imagine Labour forming a government from such a distant second place. You'd imagine they'd want to limit any full coalition to just themselves and the Liberal Democrats, with the two right-wing unionist parties providing deniable support from outside. But the problem is that a Labour - Lib Dem coalition would still have fewer MSPs than the SNP, so it would just look all wrong and I doubt it would happen in the real world.
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jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk Source: SNP become clear favourites to win a fifth term in 2026 as stunning new Opinium survey gives them a significant lead over Labour (//)