More heartbreak for Starmer as SNP stretch their lead in ScotlandScottish voting intentions for next UK general election (Survation / Quantum Communications, 14th-20th February 2024):
SNP 38% (+2)
Labour 33% (-1)
Conservatives 15% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Seats projection (with changes from 2019 general election): SNP 37 (-11), Labour 14 (+13), Liberal Democrats 4 (-), Conservatives 2 (-4)
Although this is moderately good news for the SNP and bad news for Labour, the big caveat is that Survation have tended to be one of the more favourable pollsters for the SNP since Humza Yousaf was elected leader, so there's no guarantee that another firm polling at the same time would even put the SNP ahead, let alone as much as five points ahead. Nevertheless, this is the biggest SNP lead in any Survation poll for around ten months, so it's not impossible that it's picking up a genuine - if modest - recovery.
Among Remain voters from the EU referendum, the SNP lead Labour by 46% to 32%. Why isn't that gap bigger? I still think the SNP are missing a trick by not hammering home to voters that Labour have fully embraced Brexit. They mention it now and again, but the messaging is nowhere near strong enough.
As you'd expect, the number of voters that Labour have taken from the SNP is lower than in certain other polls. 16% of SNP voters from 2019, and 18% of Yes voters from the 2014 independence referendum, are currently in the Labour column.
There's no sign of any Holyrood voting intention numbers in this poll, or any indyref voting intention numbers, unless they're being held back for another day.
Source: More heartbreak for Starmer as SNP stretch their lead in Scotland (//)