Savanta ComRes poll: voters remain evenly split on independenceApologies for being so late with covering yesterday's Savanta ComRes independence poll for the Economist. I wasn't too busy or anything like that - I was just totally oblivious to the fact that there was a poll out. This is the problem when there are no polls for extended periods - I just start forgetting to check, and it looks like I wasn't alone in being caught napping. At time of writing, the lists of polls on both Wikipedia and What Scotland Thinks have yet to be updated. Feel free to give me a little prod if I overlook any other polls in future.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta ComRes / The Economist)
Yes 49% (-1)
No 51% (+1)
That's a trivial, margin of error change from the January poll which still leaves us with a statistical tie (ie. due to the margin of error, the poll is essentially saying that either side could have a slight lead). What none of the MSM reporting of this poll takes any account of is that ComRes have been on the No-friendly end of the spectrum over the last year, sometimes producing quite substantial No leads, so in a relative sense, a 49-51 split is a decent result for Yes.
I haven't found the fieldwork dates yet, and those will be crucial. If the poll was conducted in whole - or even in part - after Russia invaded Ukraine, the numbers will look even better for Yes, because international crisis situations would typically be expected to reduce support for constitutional change at home, if only temporarily.
There are supplementary questions asking about the timing and circumstances of an indyref. I'm going to ignore the unionist spin on those and withhold judgement until I see the exact question wording and the detailed results.
* * *
For Alba members out there, just to let you know we had an NEC meeting this morning - that's the sixth we've had so far. The reason I haven't been reporting about them on the blog is simply the confidentiality rules, but rest assured they've been taking place regularly and I've been attending them. I think you'll be really excited when you see how credible and extensive a challenge Alba will be mounting at the council elections in May.
* * *
Please bear with me as I continue promoting Scot Goes Pop's fundraising drive. Opinion polls are so expensive that since I started commissioning them, fundraising has almost become like painting the Forth Bridge. If you'd like to help this blog continue for another year, or to help us commission another full-scale poll like the six we've commissioned over the last two years, here are the various options for donating...
Via the Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser for 2021-22, which I set up in the autumn and is part-funded.
If you prefer to donate directly, that can be done via Paypal or bank transfer:
My Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Or email me for my bank details. (My contact email address is different from my Paypal address, and can be found in the sidebar of the desktop version of the site, or on my Twitter profile.)
Source: Savanta ComRes poll: voters remain evenly split on independence (//)