One swallow does not make a summer, but give the SNP leadership their due: YouGov have just served up a rare sighting of a relatively good poll for the partyScottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (YouGov):
SNP 38% (+2)
Labour 27% (-5)
Conservatives 16% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Seats projection (with changes from 2019 general election): SNP 39 (-9), Labour 11 (+10), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1), Conservatives 4 (-2)
If the above was actually the outcome of the election, the SNP would feel they'd had a major result. Although they would have lost a significant number of seats, they'd have dodged the main bullet of losing their majority and their leading party status. Every instinct in my body suggests it's not going to be quite that simple, though. It's only the blink of an eye since a Redfield & Wilton poll showed them losing their lead altogether. It may be that normal sampling variation led YouGov to flatter the SNP's position and Redfield & Wilton to understate it. But even by raising that possibility, the YouGov poll is moderately good news for the SNP because it's a strong signal that things may not be quite as bad as Redfield & Wilton made them look.
More details and analysis to follow...
Source: One swallow does not make a summer, but give the SNP leadership their due: YouGov have just served up a rare sighting of a relatively good poll for the party (//)