You rather suspect the London media will be scratching their heads in incomprehension as this latest full-scale Scottish poll from Ipsos, arguably the UK polling firm with the strongest pedigree, continues to show a clear pro-independence majority, driving a coach and horses through the recent media narrative that independence is essentially dead.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Ipsos / STV, 15th-21st May 2023)
Yes 53% (-3)
No 47% (+3)
This is the first time in 2023 that any firm other than Find Out Now has shown a Yes majority, but it's not at all a surprising finding because Ipsos, rather like Find Out Now, have tended to be on the Yes-friendly end of the spectrum. So when other firms are showing a Yes vote in the high 40s, Ipsos putting Yes in the low 50s is pretty much what you'd expect. What marks Ipsos out as different from other firms is that they use telephone fieldwork and don't weight their results by recalled 2014 referendum vote. The explanation for the higher Yes vote is thus likely to be one of those two factors, or a blend of both. If the lack of 2014 weighting is indeed important, it seriously calls into question the credibility of No-majority polls from other firms, because nine years after the referendum there's such an obvious danger of false recall.
This also raises major questions for Humza Yousaf over his refusal to do anything to win independence on the grounds that there is supposedly not yet a sustained supermajority for Yes. If Ipsos (and Find Out Now) are right, there has in fact been a sustained supermajority for quite some time. So why is Humza allowing Scottish democracy to be held hostage by a select group of mostly London-based polling firms who may be producing illusory No majorities due to the questionable practice of 2014 weighting?
Where Ipsos are more in line with other pollsters is in showing that, while independence support has held up well, the SNP's own support has fallen back alarmingly since Yousaf became First Minister.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 41% (-10)
Labour 29% (+4)
Conservatives 17% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-)
Greens 3% (-)
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 42% (-8)
Labour 28% (+4)
Conservatives 17% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-)
Greens 4% (+1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 35% (-8)
Labour 27% (+6)
Conservatives 17% (+3)
Greens 12% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1)
Because the SNP were starting from a higher base with Ipsos than with other firms, this collapse in support still leaves them with a bigger lead than other firms are reporting, which would in turn allow them to hold on to significantly more seats. It therefore very much does matter which firms are getting it right methodologically, and which firms are getting it wrong.
Ipsos are in agreement with other firms that Yousaf is well behind Anas Sarwar on net personal ratings, although unlike other firms they actually have him slightly ahead of Keir Starmer, so that's a non-trivial crumb of comfort.
Net personal ratings of leaders:
Anas Sarwar (Labour): +6
Alex Cole-Hamilton (Liberal Democrats): -3
Patrick Harvie (Greens): -5
Lorna Slater (Greens): -9
Humza Yousaf (SNP): -9
Keir Starmer (Labour): -12
Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -25
Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -29
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Source: Fresh questions for Humza over his refusal to try to win independence, as new poll from Ipsos continues to show that his fabled 'sustained supermajority' for Yes already exists, and currently stands at 53% (//)