The first polling information about second preferences is extremely bad for Humza Yousaf - but extremely good for both Kate Forbes and Ash ReganI've made a few attempts over the last four days to find the data tables from last week's Survation poll on the SNP leadership election, but I became more determined tonight when I saw John Curtice saying that it was the only poll to date with any information on second preferences. I eventually found a link to the tables on Survation's Twitter account (there's still no link on the Survation website as far as I can see).
One of the problems with trying to work out the likely result of this election is that all but one of the polls to have been conducted so far have been of the general public, or in a couple of cases of SNP-voting members of the general public, rather than of card-carrying SNP members who comprise the actual electorate on this occasion. That problem also applies to these Survation numbers on second preferences. However, although there are good reasons for assuming SNP members may have different first preferences for leader than SNP voters (and the sole members' poll bears that theory out), there's no obvious reason for thinking that SNP members who want Ash Regan as leader would have radically different second preferences from SNP voters who want Ash Regan as leader. So this poll may actually give us a reasonable insight into what is likely to be going on, albeit with a big health warning attached.
Survation / DC Thomson poll (8th-10th March 2023):
Second preferences of Ash Regan-supporting SNP voters:
Kate Forbes: 46%
Humza Yousaf: 29%
Another problem here is that the subsample of Regan-supporting SNP voters is extremely small (only 44 people), so the margin of error is considerable, but it's an interesting straw in the wind if nothing else. It suggests that Kate Forbes can expect to at least eat into the modest first preference lead for Yousaf shown by the sole members' poll. On these figures, Forbes would fall very slightly short of winning, because the members' poll suggested she would need a 3-1 margin on Regan's second preferences. Nevertheless, bearing in mind the margin of error on the members' poll, this race looks extremely tight, and certainly far too close to call. There's no good reason on the basis of any poll so far to conclude that Yousaf has a very high probability of being in the lead once second preferences are taken into account.
Although it's likely to be academic, perhaps the most startling finding of this poll is that Forbes supporters return the compliment by breaking for Regan by a similar margin. I would have expected it to be much more even, or perhaps even for Yousaf to have an advantage, because I assumed that Forbes supporters were more 'establishment-minded' than Regan supporters.
Second preferences of Kate Forbes-supporting SNP voters:
Ash Regan: 45%
Humza Yousaf: 29%
On the headline first preference results, the Survation poll is strikingly similar to
the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll that was conducted at roughly the same time - it shows a big lead for Kate Forbes among the general public, and a smaller Forbes lead among SNP voters from 2021 (as opposed to the fictional 19-point lead for Yousaf that the man himself kept boasting about on Sky the other night).
General public's first preferences:
Kate Forbes: 30%
Humza Yousaf: 20%
Ash Regan: 9%
First preferences of SNP voters:
Kate Forbes: 33%
Humza Yousaf: 31%
Ash Regan: 13%
First preferences of Yes voters from 2014 independence referendum:
Kate Forbes: 32%
Humza Yousaf: 28%
Ash Regan: 15%
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Over the last few days I've published results from TWO new Scot Goes Pop opinion polls - an opportunity to commission a second poll suddenly arose, so I made a snap decision to go ahead. However, as you'll appreciate, polls are very expensive, so if anyone feels able to make a contribution, here are the options...
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Source: The first polling information about second preferences is extremely bad for Humza Yousaf - but extremely good for both Kate Forbes and Ash Regan (//)