50%+1 of combined votes from pro-independence parties in any WM or HR election is a clear instruction from the electorate that we commence withdrawal negotiations from the U.K. Independence - nothing less pic.twitter.com/egYyyeDa8c
— Ash Regan MSP (@AshtenRegan) February 19, 2023
This is excellent - the sort of 100% clarity I was hoping for from at least one candidate. If other candidates deliberately use vague language in trying to explain how they will win independence, ask them why they're not matching this.https://t.co/txkGn5L5TF
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 19, 2023
I'm not the only one who's impressed. If I was Ash Regan I'd put this at the top of the campaign website like a theatre review.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 19, 2023
"Amazing" - Blair McDougallhttps://t.co/TJF3i8ySVX
I said a couple of days ago that it was inevitable that at least one SNP leadership candidate would emerge with a credible, highly specific and daring plan for winning independence, and that person would deserve the full support of SNP members and the wider movement. Ash Regan has now hit that threshold, so the only remaining question is whether any other candidate will match what she's done. If not, we'll all be getting our prayer-mats out and hoping Ms Regan wins.
I've been saying all along that the closing off of the referendum path - which is the fault of the British state and not of the independence movement - is an opportunity rather than a setback as long as we make it one. What it does is liberate us once and for all from the tyranny of the 'once in a generation' and 'we only get one more shot at this' narratives, which have been giving the 'do nothing' faction the excuse to run in terror from any opportunity to actually win independence. There's no longer any need to refrain from shooting on goal because you're trying to set up the 'perfect score'. The only limit on the number of times you can use an election as a de facto independence referendum is the number of elections that take place. And a Westminster election is never more than five years away. A Holyrood election is never more than five years away. If you're happy to use either a Westminster or Holyrood election, opportunities might come up roughly every two or three years.
Of course it's easy to see why the likes of Blair McDougall think that de facto referendums should - for some unspecified reason - have the scarcity of actual referendums, but why in God's name would we let Blair McDougall set the rules? All Ash Regan is promising is that we more or less revert to the pre-devolution principle that the SNP go into every general election seeking a mandate for independence. Famously, even Margaret Thatcher herself accepted that principle, and acknowledged that Scotland would become independent if the SNP won a majority in a general election - and that meant any general election, without any arbitrary limits. To her, a mandate for independence in 1987 would have had just as much validity as a mandate for independence in 1983 or 1979. There is no expiry date on a country's right to democratic self-determination.
I said yesterday that I don't think Ash Regan can win because she's best known for her stance on the gender issue, which puts her at odds (we assume) with the majority of SNP members. I still fear that's the case, but she's doing absolutely the right thing in trying to overcome that disadvantage - she's putting independence strategy rather than the gender issue at the heart of her campaign pitch. Even in 2023, independence is what SNP members care about most. An additional problem for her is that she's less well known than some of the other likely candidates, and the extreme haste with which the SNP hierarchy are deliberately running this campaign gives her less time and scope to introduce herself. But again, that means she's been extremely wise in coming out of the blocks so fast, and in setting a gold standard for independence strategy that the other candidates are now effectively being dared to meet.
* * *