YouGov poll: SNP vote holds up well on Westminster ballot, offsetting slight disappointment on the indyref numbersThanks to the commenter 'Alba for Independence' for pointing me in the direction of a new full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov. I was actually expecting a Survation poll, because I heard a few days ago there was one in the field, so unless that's a private poll it might still be along soon.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov / Sunday Times, 23rd-26th January 2023)
Yes 47% (-6)
No 53% (+6)
I know the scale of the swing to No looks alarming here, but I can't emphasise enough just how unusual the previous YouGov poll (showing a 53-47 lead for Yes) was. YouGov are generally on the No-friendly end of the spectrum, and if anything I'd normally regard 47% for Yes in a YouGov poll as being decent enough. Essentially this is just a reversion to the mean, and I don't buy the spin in certain quarters about Yes taking a big hit due to the trans issue. There was a Survation poll earlier in the month showing a very similar picture before the trans issue even hit the headlines, which would suggest that the change is caused more by the Supreme Court verdict fading from voters' memories. However, the bad news is that YouGov's figures also lend support to the idea that the Survation poll was more accurate than the Find Out Now poll commissioned by The National, which was conducted at around the same time but showed a big Yes lead.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 42% (-1)
Labour 29% (-)
Conservatives 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-)
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 44% (-6)
Labour 26% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-)
Greens 2% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 36% (-4)
Labour 26% (+2)
Conservatives 17% (+4)
Greens 9% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-)
So very good news on the Westminster ballot where there is no statistically significant change. It's a different story in the Scottish Parliament voting intentions, and it's probably fair to say party political voting intentions are more susceptible to being affected by something like the trans story, so it's possible that may be the explanation for the drop in the SNP's Holyrood vote. The fact that the anti-self-ID Tories are the main beneficiaries is consistent with that theory. However, anyone nursing the 'hope' that Scottish politics was about to be totally upended will be very disappointed with these numbers - the SNP remain comfortably in first place and the Tories still languish in third, well behind Labour.
We also have to pay heed to the exact fieldwork dates - it looks to me as if the poll was already completed by the time that Nicola Sturgeon announced that Isla Bryson would not be held at Cornton Vale, a decision which may have repaired some of the damage. For what it's worth, there's been a more recent GB-wide poll from YouGov since then, and the Scottish subsample shows a 16-point SNP lead over Labour, with the Tories on a very low vote.
The full YouGov tables aren't out yet, but apparently Nicola Sturgeon's personal ratings have slipped very slightly into negative territory. The Sunday Times have gone into full propaganda mode by comparing this to the highs of her popularity during the first Covid lockdown - I mean, you could just as easily compare it to the years prior to that when Ms Sturgeon was sometimes in negative territory and often slightly trailed Ruth Davidson. And yet that didn't stop the SNP winning every election they fought. So I'd advise people to keep a sense of perspective and maintain scepticism about propaganda from a media which may think it scents blood, but may just as easily be trying to 'fake it until it's real'.
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Source: YouGov poll: SNP vote holds up well on Westminster ballot, offsetting slight disappointment on the indyref numbers (//)