Who do the betting markets say will be the next Prime Minister?The entire premise of my previous post was rendered redundant by the fact that I'd misconstrued the voting system for the upcoming Tory leadership election - which I see Wikipedia are calling the "October 2022 Conservative leadership election" to helpfully distinguish it from the "Summer 2022 Conservative leadership election". We're making progress, because apparently Tory leadership elections can now be safely named after months rather than seasons.
The immediate cause of my schoolboy blunder was that - weirdly - I spent the afternoon watching the Alec Guinness version of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy rather than hanging on Graham Brady's every word. Political nerd I may be, but you can tell that even my enthusiasm is flagging a bit after four months of this circus. Anyway, maybe the betting markets can make it simple for us and tell us who the new Prime Minister will be...
Rishi Sunak: 1.91
Boris Johnson: 3.55
Penny Mordaunt: 6.6
That implies a slightly greater than 50% probability that Sunak will win. I think that's about right, or may even underestimate Sunak's chances. Now that I actually understand the rules (I think), there are two ways that a winner can be declared: a) if only one candidate is nominated by at least 100 MPs, or b) the outcome of a members' run-off if more than one candidate is nominated. If the first scenario occurs it would be bound to be Sunak, and in the second scenario Sunak is still the most probable victor, because in contrast to the early stages of the summer contest, there's no particular evidence to suggest that the members prefer Mordaunt. There is, however, plenty of evidence to suggest the members prefer Johnson to Sunak - but presumably the minimum nomination threshold has been set where it is because sums have been done to ensure Johnson cannot reach the ballot.
So probably the value on those odds would be to lay Johnson, or to back Mordaunt and then close out after Johnson is eliminated.
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